C - Johnny Estrada, MIL - He’s $5 cheaper than Pierzynski and he’ll beat him in average and ribbies.  Gerald Laird and David Ross will cost less than $10 and should give you double digit returns.

1B - Kevin Youkilis is worth his weight in gold for a 5×5 league.   Adrian Gonzalez is definitely undervalued at anything less than $20.  

2B - Luis Castillo is worth $10 if he can get you 20 steals and a .300 average.   Adam Kennedy is also a steal at under $10.  

3B - Chad Tracy and Morgan Ensberg are the best value players in NL leagues.   Joe Crede and Mark Teahen are good in the AL.  

SS - Ben Zobrist will cost $1 or $2 and probably return $5 to $6.  That’s a win-win if you don’t shell out big at this position.  Khalil Greene is my smack, impact investment for the NL because I think he has a big year.  

OF - Brad Wilkerson, Curtis Granderson, and Jose Guillen should cost $15 or less and I can see them finishing about $20 in value.   Luke Scott should be a great buy for less than $10.  

SP - Tim Wakefield and Joe Blanton are cheap on draft day and could help your team in wins.   Matt Garza is a definite buy now that he’s gone to the minors.  He’ll be back soon.   Dave Bush and Chris Capuano are major buys in the NL.   I’m telling you that these two guys could be the reason you win your fantasy league.   I’m also counting big bargains in Tim Hudson, John Maine, and Ian Snell.  The Pirate pitcher could really help in strikeout leagues.   He probably helps you win the category if you play the rest of the position right.

IF - Alberto Callaspo, Arizona - I can see him getting some at bats in the infield.  He was a very good hitter in the minor leagues and just needs the opportunity.

C - Brian Schneider, Washington - It can’t be as bad as it was last year in terms of hitting.  

C - Yadier Molina, St. Louis - Ditto.  Plus I just read he’s the best clutch hitter in baseball.

C - Mike Napoli, Los Angeles - You might tank the average category but the home runs will help if you need ‘em.

1B - Kendry Morales, Los Angeles - He has good tools.  It’s just a matter of him putting it together and I don’t think the Angels can count on a really healthy team this year.

SP - Daniel Cabrera, Baltimore - The history of high walks will scare away people and I think it’s about time for the real breakout.   You should get Cabrera cheap this year.

SP - Esteban Loaiza,OAK - He should do OK for wins and ERA in this ballpark. 

RP - Jorge Julio, Arizona - Could be a cheap source for some additional saves during the season.    

C - J.D. Closser, Milwaukee - Getting out of Colorado could be the best thing that ever happened to him.

RP - Danys Baez, Baltimore - Potential cheap saves and definitely undervalued after a bad last year.

OF - Hunter Pence, Houston - The Astros will need his bat in the outfield if they want to make a run this year.

SP - Doug Davis, Arizona - The team should be good and he’ll get the wins.   A poor 2006 season really lowered his value.

SP - Kip Wells, St. Louis - This is the team that can turn him around and finally realize that potential.

RP - Edwin Jackson, Tampa Bay - This is the make or break year and he’ll finally push through to the rotation.

DH - Adam Lind, Toronto - He can flat out hit and the Jays will need him in the lineup because Thomas won’t stay healthy.

3B/LF - Josh Fields, White Sox - He could end up with very decent number because there is some pop in the bat.

What’s better than a good hot dog and a cold beer in the summer months?   Baseball, Hot Dogs, and Strat.   It doesn’t get any better than that.

Skooby’s – LA – The atmosphere is very cool and I love the quesadilla dog. 
Nathan’s – NY – It’s in the casing dude.
Rutt’s Hut – NJ – This deep fried dawg is a monster.  It’s unique and you’ll never forget the taste.
Tony Packo’s – OH – This place really exists and the ketchup is fantastic.
Pink’s Hot Dog – LA – The Rosie O’Donnell hot dog is one of the best evah!
Fat Johnnie’s - IL - I really like this Chicago dog but they need to save the vegetation for a salad.

AL
MVP - Hafner over A-Rod
Cy Young - Santana over Lackey
Rookie - Matsuzaka over Young
Home Run Leader - Ortiz over A-Rod
Batting Champ - Tejada over Kendrick
Breakout Hitter - Markakis
Breakout Pitcher - Haren
Comeback Hitter - Peralta
Comeback Pitcher - Harden
NL
MVP - Pujols over Wright
Cy Young - Webb over Peavy
Rookie of the Year - Pence over Braun
Home Run Leader - Pujols over Fielder (not Howard)
Batting Champ - Cabrera over Pujols
Breakout Hitter - Fielder
Breakout Pitcher - Wainwright
Comeback Hitter - Derrek Lee
Comeback Pitcher - Russ Ortiz

Top 3 Strat Cards in Draft - Matsuzaka, Gordon, Adam Miller
Top 5 Strat Cards Overall - Pujols, Hafner, Jeter, A-Rod, Fielder

NL Predicted Standings

1.  Mets - Great lineup and a patchwork staff.
2.  Phillies - Great lineup.  They win division if the staff holds up.
3.  Marlins - Lots of nice young players.   A healthy Johnson is key.
4.  Braves - Could be a really tough season if Smoltz isn’t his old self.
5.  Nationals - You think Zimmerman has already started thinking about free agency?

Central
1.  Brewers - The surprise team of the 2007 season with good lineup and rotation.
2.  Cardinals - Not enough quality role players on the team.
3.  Astros - Carlos Lee will impress.  Jason Jennings will not.
4.  Cubs - It’ll be a bloodbath based on money spent.
5.  Pirates - Strat guys will watch Snell, Bay, Walker, and McCutchen.6. Reds

West
1.  D-Backs - Webb and the kids from AAA get the division title.
2.  Dodgers - Good pitching, little hitting.  It’s 1965 again.
3.  Padres - Maddux gives them 4 good starters but the lineup needs a big bat.
4.  Giants - Zito and Cain and pray for rain.
5.  Rockies - Some nice bats but Cook and Francis disappoint.

Playoffs
D-Backs over Phillies
Brewers over Mets

Championship
D-Backs in 7 over Brewers and then they sweep the Red Sox

AL 2007 Predicted Standings

East
1.  Yankees - The best lineup in baseball is more than enough for a patchwork starting rotation.
2.  Red Sox - Pitching is the key if offense gets nothing more than Manny and Ortiz
3.  Blue Jays - Could make wild card if they get good seasons from Lilly and Towers
4.  Orioles - Good young pitching staff on the verge of a breakthrough could bring .500 record.
5.  Devil Rays - Lots of young talent but they’re about 10 pitchers short of a staff

Central
1.  Twins - They’ll need another big season from Mauer and Morneau to push them into playoff contention.
2.  Indians - Great offense and the starting staff behind Sabathia will surprise.
3.  White Sox - Not enough consistency throughout lineup or rotation
4.  Tigers - Expect most of their players to take a step back this year.
5.  Royals - The team continues to be a mess but Gordon and Butler will provide some glimmer of hope

West
1.  Angels - Best starting rotation in baseball, cruddy lineup after Guerrero.  It’s enough in this division.
2.  Athletics - Must avoid another team slump with the bat and rotation is a mess after Harden and Haren.
3.  Rangers - No help from the pitching once again.
4.  Mariners - Only King Felix provides any interest.

Playoffs
Angels over Yankees
Red Sox over Twins

Championship
Red Sox over Angels

Pitchers Who Could Have A Better Than Expected Strat Card Next Year

ARN - Dustin Nippert
ATL - Tim Hudson
BAL - Daniel Cabrera
BOS - Kason Gabbert (Matsuzaka is too easy a call)
CHN - Rocky Cherry
CHA - John Danks
CIN - Todd Coffey
CLE - Adam Miller
COL - Manual Corpas
DET - Andrew Miller
FLA - Henry Owens
HOU - Fernando Nieve
KC - Zack Grienke
LAA - Ervin Santana
LAD - Chad Billingsley
MIL - Derrick Turnbow
MIN - Matt Garza
NYM - Mike Pelfrey
NYY - Kei Igawa
OAK - Rich Harden (full season baby!)
PHI - Cole Hamels
PIT - Ian Snell
SD - Clay Hensley
SF - Russ Ortiz
SEA - Felix Hernandez (can’t find anyone else on the team)
STL - Kip Wells
TB - Edwin Jackson
TEX - Kameron Loe
TOR - Tomo Ohka
WAS - Jerome Williams

Players who’ll surprise with better than expected Strat cards next year

ARI - Alberto Callaspo
ATL - Matt Diaz
BAL - Aubrey Huff
BOS - Kevin Youkilis
CHN - Ryan The Riot
CHA - Jose Fields
CIN - Brandon Phillips
CLE - Ryan Garko
COL - Chris Ianetta
DET - Curtis Granderson
FLA - Alejandro De Aza
HOU - Morgan Ensberg
KC - Billy Butler
LAA - Howie Kendrick
LAD - James Loney
MIL - Kevin Mench
MIN - Jason Bartlett
NYM - Lastings Milledge
NYY - Hideki Matsui
OAK - Milton Bradley
PHI - Shane Victorino
PIT - Neil Walker
SD - Khalil Greene
SF - Todd Linden
SEA - Jose Guillen
STL - Yadier Molina
TB - Ben Zobrist
TEX - Ian Kinsler
WAS - Ryan Church

C-Miguel Montero
1B-James Loney
2B-Rickie Weeks
SS- None
3B- None
IF-Alberto Callaspo
OF-Luke Scott
OF-Chris Young
OF-Corey Hart
SP-Ian Snell
SP-Chad Billingsley
SP-John Maine

C-Gerald Laird
1B-Ryan Garko
2B-Ian Kinsler
SS-Jason Bartlett
OF-David DeJesus
OF-Curtis Granderson
OF-Milton Bradley
SP-Jeremy Sowers
SP-Matt Garza
SP-Brandon McCarthy

SOM Hot Topics
The Pitcher * Rule
Peezy

SOM can’t cover everything with its board game.   That’s why they instituted a number of MAX rules in the computer version.   They also have to make certain compromises within the game design, if for playability than no other reason.  

There’s a reason why specific pitcher hitting cards looks like a big headache.   Most pitchers don’t get a lot of at bats in a season.   Breaking into the 80 and 90 AB territory is a good feat in this era.   There’s no reason for SOM to provide a specific hitting card for a reliever who did nothing in 10 at bats.   Given the deviation in replay results, the #1 hitting card provides the same bang for the buck.

Still, some things in the SOM baseball game just don’t work in terms of accuracy and realism.   The SOM * (asterisk) rule represents one of those grey areas where playability doesn’t necessarily coincide with actual usage, at least for the modern major league era.  

For the dead ball era or decades past, the * rule helped the high-inning starter get the appropriate number of game starts.   You don’t see a lot of high-inning guys anymore compared to previous decades.

36+ Starts

2005 – 0 pitchers

2004 – 0 pitchers
2003 – 2 pitchers
2002 – 1 pitchers

230+ Innings
2005 – 6 pitchers

2004 – 5 pitchers
2003 – 7 pitchers
2002 – 9 pitchers

We’re taking about a very small number of pitchers who reach the 36+ start or 230+ innings categories.   Even 34 and 35 starts in a season is a fairly small percentage in terms of starters for a given season.  

Now, SOM doesn’t tell you how to use your players in a replay or draft league.   They don’t designate an * for a pitcher and tell you to start him every 3 days.   The rule, by my interpretation, means the pitcher has the ability to pitch on 3 days rest if necessary.

The only thing is that 3 days rest is a fairly foreign concept to most pitchers.   The 2005 season had 9 pitchers with 35 starts.   They didn’t pitch in many games with 3 days rest.

Greg Maddux – 3 of 35
Jon Lieber – 1 of 35
Livan Hernandez – 1 of 35
Derek Lowe – 0 of 35
Doug Davis - 0 of 35
Barry Zito – 0 of 35

Rodrigo Lopez – 1 of 35
Roy Oswalt – 0 of 35
Chris Capuano – 1 of 35

Doing the math, the pitchers who led the league in games started pitched 2.2 percent of their starts on 3 days rest.   There’s no reason for any of these guys to have an * on their card.  

Livan Hernandez, for example, made a start on 3 days rest because opponents roughed him up in a previous appearance that lasted 1.1 innings.   He wasn’t really pitching on 3 days rest.   He barely threw 1 inning in the preceding game.

Here we see the problem of the SOM * rule.   Pitchers don’t work on 3 days rest, even those logging in with a high number of innings in a season.

SOM has an arbitrary system that assigns the * rule based on a combination of GS and IP.   That works fine as a system.  But why should Lowe, Davis, Zito, and Oswalt get an * on their card when they didn’t even work on 3 days rest for the season?

That doesn’t make any sense.  

The * rule is a bad idea for draft leagues.   It gives some starting pitchers an advantage in the game when they didn’t have it in the regular season.   It can take away from the precision and exactness of a replay and can impact the season’s final outcomes.

The * rule is outdated and old-fashioned.  The modern-day evidence does not suggest much of a need for it.   The percentage of starts with 3 days rest is extremely small.  

You don’t want to throw the baby out with the bath water, if you will, because the rule works for some of the past card sets, especially those long ago.  Still, the SOM * rule is certainly not an accurate reflection of today’s game and the company should abandon their current framework for assigning the * in favor of something more realistic.

What’s better than a good sleeper pick?  It gives you a leg up on the competition next year.  So I’m mining my NYC and CSL free agent pools and come up with these names.

Ryan Shealy - He just turned 27 and I think 20 to 25 home runs isn’t an exaggeration.   He has a really nice lift to his swing.

Ian Snell - Not getting out of the tough stretches made for a bad rookie card.   Snell has a nice arm and was really throwing strikes in his first spring outing.   The sophomore year could be much better.

Kip Wells - If anyone can get this guy back on track and help realize his potential then it’s Dave Duncan and Tony LaRussa.

Joel Guzman - He’s working hard in the Tampa Bay camp and it looks like he might just claim that third base spot.   Guzman could go down as one of those former top prospects that falls through their first Strat draft.  You can still get him cheap!!

Nelson Cruz - Yes, he hasn’t done much so far in his major league career but he figures to start the season as the right fielder in Texas.  All he needs is a strong start to gain his confidence.

TT

This series of Strat 360° articles involves finding the players you want for start-up keeper leagues or the players you want if you’re rebuilding or trying to get younger on your existing draft league team.   We’re going back three years instead of just looking at 1 season of rookies or prospects.
 

Catcher

1.  Joe Mauer – He quickly evolved into the game’s best catcher and he’s already won a batting title.   Mauer has everything and is worth a number one pick in a start-up draft.

2.  Brian McCann – He’s an elite offensive catcher who can hit for average and power.   He’s not quite as good as Mauer based on the OB difference but he’s also worth a first round start-up pick given the power and young age.
 3.  Russell Martin – High OB and a nice throwing arm.  What else could you want out of a catcher?   The only problem could come from the unbalanced columns.  You want to see more action out of the RH side.

  
4.  Gerald Laird – He could surprise given the now full-time role in Texas.   Laird could end up a top five to seven pick at the position in the ’07 set.  
 5.  Kenjii Johjima -  He’s a nice veteran catcher and you know what you’re getting based on the rookie stats.   Johjima doesn’t hit lefties very well so you’ll have to blow another pick at catcher for the platoon situation.  
 6.  Ronny Paulino – It looks like all average and little power but Paulino gets a lot of at bats and doesn’t hurt you in the throwing arm category.
 7.  Yadier Molina – He’s the best defensive catcher in the game but he tanked in the batting average department and it ruined the ’06 card.   You can use Molina as a late-inning replacement this year.  Hopefully he’ll hit .265 or something next year and you can give him a larger role.
 8.  Dioneer Navarro – He never has hit for average or double-digit homers in the majors.   The on-base isn’t that bad though and he should give you a .725 OPS.
 9.  Chris Iannetta – Colorado catcher with a sweet swing should get the job out of Spring Training.   He hit for average in the minors and the scouting reports say his defensive skills are ahead of the curve for someone of his age.
 10. Mike Napoli – This is the classic Strat model of power and on-base, no batting average help.   You’ll have to stick Napoli down in the order but the on-base is a source of hidden value here.
 11. John Buck – The Royals think he could hit 20 homers down the road but his offense has stalled since arriving at the major leagues.
 12. Jeff Mathis – The Angels handed him the job last season and Mathis failed miserably in May.  Napoli isn’t a lock so a hot start by Mathis could completely change the equation.  
 13. Chris Snyder – The Diamondbacks like the defense.   Snyder will work to save his job.  He altered his batting mechanics and it helped raise the 2006 average.  He survived the Koyie Hill challenge.  Can he beat out Montero?  
14. Miguel Montero – He will challenge Snyder for the job in Arizona.  He’s a better player on paper but his time may not come until 2008.

Next – First Base